How Saudi Arabia is turning great-power rivalry to its advantage

The nuclear energy deal is being celebrated as a “win”[x] in the United States against China and Russia even as the U.S. has 123 Agreements with dozens of countries, including China.[xi] It rather represents Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic triumph given it has secured a pathway for nuclear cooperation without any commitment to formalize ties with Israel. Unlike many countries struggling to navigate intense U.S.-China rivalry, the kingdom has successfully turned the great-power competition to its advantage, using its ties with Beijing to extract concessions from Washington.

Meanwhile, China is already deeply embedded in the regional energy infrastructure and economic landscape. In addition to strengthening collaboration with Gulf nations in the renewable sector, China has overtaken[xii] the U.S. and European Union to emerge as the GCC’s largest trading partner while demonstrating its utility as a peace broker – such as in the case of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement.

The United States cannot realistically expect Saudi Arabia to exclude China from its energy transition since Beijing has capabilities, scale and cost advantages that are difficult to replicate elsewhere. Through the agreements such as the civil nuclear deal, Washington could, however, ensure that China’s role in the kingdom does not extend beyond trade, infrastructure and green technology and the United States retains an outsized influence in shaping Saudi Arabia and the region’s future economic and strategic trajectory.

Still, by conditioning the nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia’s participation in the Abraham Accords, President Donald Trump has once again vindicated that Riyadh’s approach is heading down the right path. If Washington continues to make access to nuclear technology contingent on political concessions, it risks ceding more ground to China in the region. The Middle Kingdom may not replace the United States as Riyadh’s principal strategic ally but it will create an opportunity for the Beijing to establish itself as Saudi Arabia’s long-term partner in the region.

Amid an intense and ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the Washington-Riyadh nuclear agreement has gained renewed attention. Yet, Saudi Arabia’s focus remains on accelerating Vision 2030, which requires diplomatic engagement with Tehran, security guarantees and civil nuclear cooperation with Washington and deepening economic ties with Beijing. This omnidirectional diplomacy enables Riyadh to manage threats from Iran’s regional proxies, acquire advanced weapons from the U.S. and maintain strong trade ties with its largest crude buyer and technology partner, China.

Saudi Arabia is doing precisely what Trump’s National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy expect from its regional allies. Even before these strategies called on regional allies to assume greater responsibility for their own defence,[xiii] the kingdom had signed a mutual defence pact with Pakistan. Adapting to Trump’s transactional approach, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during his visit to the White House last year raised his investment pledge in the United States from $600 billion to nearly $1 trillion[xiv], targeting infrastructure, technology and industry. Through these initiatives, Riyadh diversified its security partnerships without abandoning Washington as a primary security anchor while broadening its relationship with the United States on a more solid, durable foundation.

The kingdom’s approach can be summed up in one word: pragmatism. As the United States redefines its role in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is adjusting just as quickly. By avoiding getting pulled in the regional conflicts and expanding cooperation with Washington beyond defence and security into higher-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing and semiconductors, Riyadh is aligning itself with the “America First” agenda, Trump’s blueprint emphasizing investment, technology and industrial renewal.

In return, Riyadh is securing critical strategic assets like advanced weapons, civil nuclear cooperation and frontier chips to accelerate its Vision 2030’s goals of economic diversification and digital leadership while elevating collaboration with China on trade, manufacturing and clean-energy infrastructure.[xv] This multi-faceted approach allows Saudi Arabia to successfully leverage the distinct capabilities of the two major powers to pursue its own national strategic objectives and foster its own modernization.