Tehran’s Baloch Calculus Amid the War with the U.S.

The Iranian regime, of course, is aware of its vulnerabilities. Despite the severe weakening of the state apparatus as a result of the U.S.-Israeli strikes, it has demonstrated both its ability[i] and willingness[ii] to employ all the tools of terror and tyranny at its disposal to maintain its hold on power. Given this reality, it should come as no surprise that the foreign proxy militias nurtured by Iran to expand its Wilayat al-Faqih empire across the Middle East have been deployed[iii] from Tehran to Balochistan to protect the regime from the people it rules.

On the internal front, the Iranian regime faces a major challenge in Balochistan – the south-eastern part of the country inhabited by the Baloch Sunni population. Iranian-administered Balochistan comprises Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province as well as parts of eastern Hormozgan, southern Kerman, and southern Khorasan. Since its annexation by Iran (then Persia) in 1928, the region has remained restive and has endured extreme forms of repression[iv] and marginalization under successive regimes in Tehran.

Balochistan remains Iran’s least developed[v] and poorest[vi] region, and the Baloch face a looming threat of demographic change in their ancestral homeland as Tehran plans to settle millions of Iranians in the coastal areas of Balochistan.[vii] Marked by recurring socio-political unrest[viii] and an ongoing insurgency, this remote yet strategically important region arguably remains the most volatile part of Iran.

Now that the Iranian regime is in survival mode and it is under enormous pressure, the perspectives of Baloch political and social circles regarding the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran – and their approach toward the regime – are important factors not only for Tehran but also for all those with interests in this geopolitically significant region.

Iran’s authoritarian regime does not tolerate political opposition and suppresses dissent through an established system of repression that includes arbitrary arrests, torture, imprisonment and executions. Yet there remain a few voices inside Iran that dare to speak truth to power. One such influential figure is Maulana Abdolhamid from Balochistan, the most prominent Sunni religious leader in Iran. He has consistently criticised the Iranian regime’s policies and his Friday sermons have become a platform for the cautious expression of public sentiment in Iran.

During the ongoing conflict, Abdolhamid has repeatedly called for an end to the war, stating[ix] that “the only way to salvation is a fair agreement.” He has indirectly held the regime responsible for the circumstances that led to the conflict, saying that “if the authorities had listened to the people, no power could have waged war against us.”[x] He has described “surrender to public demands”[xi] as the best way to avoid war. He has also urged all parties to engage in negotiations with a “positive mindset[xii],” arguing that “diplomacy should not fear extremists.”[xiii]

Meanwhile, Abdolhamid has called for the release of political prisoners[xiv], a halt to executions[xv], and the restoration of internet connectivity across the country. Emphasizing that no individual is above criticism and that, in Islam, government does not belong to any individual, he has declared that the people of Iran will never abandon their demands for “justice” and “freedom.” He has also advocated ethnic and religious coexistence and urged the avoidance of confrontation with those holding differing viewpoints.

While Iran’s theocratic regime employs charges such as Moharebeh[xvi] (waging war against God) to silence critics and opponents, applying the same charge against the country’s leading Sunni cleric remains a “red line”[xvii] as doing so would inflict greater damage on the regime than the criticism itself. Nevertheless, Sunni scholars and seminaries[xviii], including Abdolhamid and his seminary, Dar al-Ulum Zahedan, have constantly faced pressure from the authorities, and not all scholars enjoy the limited space available to Abdolhamid[xix] or exercise the same degree of caution.

In May, Maulana Fazlur Rehman Kohi, a former political prisoner and the Sunni Friday Imam of Peshamag in Balochistan, reportedly left Iran[xx] because of increasing pressure from the country’s security apparatus and to avoid re-arrest following a summons from the Special Clerical Court in Mashhad. Earlier, Kohi had stated that he was being summoned because of his support for Maulana Abdolhamid and that he had not bowed his head to any threat during his six years in prison.