Introduction
The climate crisis continues to escalate, with the year 2024 once again breaking temperature records and being marked by extreme weather events. Global warming and the climate crisis affect all regions of the world, but the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is particularly vulnerable due to rising temperatures, heatwaves , and worsening water scarcity.
At the same time, 2024 has been an extremely violent year due to two major wars in the Middle East and Europe. The conflict between Hamas and Israel has spread throughout the region, affecting countries from Lebanon and Yemen. Libya’s civil conflict is still ongoing, and fighting in Syria has been renewed once again. The number of displaced people due to conflict in the region is rising, with an estimated 17 million people affected.
The double burden of climate change and violent conflict poses a serious risk to human security to those residing in the MENA region. Human security requires conditions that ensure the survival, livelihoods, and dignity of individuals, as well as the protection and empowerment of all. Ongoing conflicts and a shrinking water table threaten the sustainability of people’s livelihoods for years to come.
One of the emerging concerns related to climate change is the potential of climate-induced migration from the MENA region. Concerns about climate-induced displacement are understandable—climate change does indeed affect human security of the displaced population and environmental sustainability in the region. However, much of the discourse surrouding climate-induced displacement has become framed in the context of broader security threats. Rather than shining the light on the compounded effects of climate- and conflict-induced migration, the securitized discourse often focuses on fears of migration in potential destination countries, relying on a set of assumptions that are often misleading. This approach has become entangled with political developments in Europe, especially the rise of far-right politics , which often capitalizes on fears of migration.
Climate change as a main driver of migration
Fear: Climate change will lead to mass displacement and migration in the MENA region, generating security risks.
Fact: Migration, either forced or voluntary, is influenced by a range of factors including climate and environmental change. In the MENA region, there is limited evidence demonstrating climate change is a major push factor for migration , despite the environmental challenges local populations face. Civil war-related violence and political repression, on the other hand, had a direct impact on the refugee outflow from Syria and Palestine and internally displaced people in Iraq, Yemen, and Libya. Debunking the popular narrative that droughts have caused the migration in the MENA has involved various efforts , calling for approaches to de-securitize migration with human-centered priorities.
The greatest climate-related risk posed by migration is not to receiving countries, but to the migrants themselves. Populations forcibly displaced in the MENA region are highly vulnerable to climate hazards. For example, in Yemen , 4.5 million people are internally displaced, and IDP hosting sites have been frequently destroyed by heavy rain, windstorm, and flooding. Displaced people face various health issues due to water scarcity, environmental pollution, and extreme heat. Water scarcity is particularly acute in the IDP hosting sites. According to one account, water shortage can last longer than a week, leading to disputes among IDPs. Policy instruments to address their specific needs are insufficient and lag behind the scale of the crisis.
Without systematic and robust climate action, climate change may continue to harm livelihoods and living conditions in MENA, potentially increasing the risk of migration. However, this should not be used to frame climate-induced migration from the MENA region as a security threat or inevitability. Such framing could justify climate inaction and deepen pessimism about the region.
Migration destinations
Fear: Climate change will lead to a dramatic increase in migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe.
Fact: Climate hazards are increasingly a driver of forced migration and displacement, but migrants tend to stay within countries of origin or remain within the region. Jordan and Egypt, for instance, absorb the bulk of conflict-displaced populations in the Middle East. The Gulf countries also receive substantial labor migration from the region.
Rural livelihoods in the region are more exposed to climate hazards and sensitive to shocks, which may lead these populations to migrate from affected areas to urban or peri-urban centers. Such trends have been seen during drought periods in Iraq as well as Syria. In Iraq, displaced communities have clashed with host communities over issues such as competition over shared resources and infrastructure use.
North Africa has served as a transit point for Sub-Saharan African migration to Europe , and the growing migrant population there raise serious concerns about the migrants’ safety and rights as well as the impact on host country populations. Climate impacts on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa contribute to the search for better socio-economic opportunities. Even in North Africa, however, trends began to shift slightly over the last few years with Morocco absorbing an increasing number of migrants from the continent.
This migration flow creates an additional burden for North Africa, a region already affected by rising temperatures, sand storms, and desertification. Political instability and conflicts in several North African countries have intensified climate vulnerability. The collapse of the Derna Dam in Libya exemplifies the governance challenges resulting in a humanitarian disaster. As Europe is patroling its borders more tightly , migrants are likely to spend extended periods of time in North Africa, a region with its own political and climate challenges to meet. Rather than securitizing climate migration from MENA, Europe should focus on strengthening climate resilience and supporting climate action in the region.
Inequality, intersectionality, and climate justice
Fear: Climate change will exacerbate inequalities, and the negative impacts of migration would disproportionately affect women, children, and other minorities in the MENA region.
Fact: This is unfortunately true. Understanding the gendered aspects of climate change and migration needs to be advanced. While climate change disproportionately impacts vulnerable groups, the root causes of their vulnerability are deeply embedded in socio-political contexts and structural inequalities. These pre-existing conditions must be addressed to effectively mitigate the effects of climate change on marginalized populations. In many cases, civil conflicts are driven by grievances and structural inequality , but violence during conflicts often exacerbates social vulnerability and deepens injustice. Social vulnerability undermines people and communities’ ability to cope with external shocks, including those caused by climate change.
The gendered impact of climate change and migration is complex and context-specific. Narratives about gender and climate change have long assumed that women and girls are more vulnerable to climate change and migration due to their lack of access to material resources. Simultaneously, women are often seen as burden bearers , responsible for family care, community support, and environmental stewardship. These perceptions give prominence to initiatives to support women for climate resilience by donating them with resources such as cash and livestock and providing them with practical training. In the MENA context, promoting gender-sensitive climate action has a long way to go.
While these perceptions may not be entirely false, they may fall short of addressing deeply rooted social norms and revealing the fundamental problems in gender norms and relations. Restrictive gender norms have resulted in discriminative land ownership , access to finance , and freedom of movement, undermining women’s ability to cope with climate hazards in a more resilient way. The impact of climate change is almost always socially mediated , and this social process fundamentally shapes migration decisions and mobility patterns. Understanding these structures can help shape gender-sensitive climate policies and protect women migrants.
Conclusion
The relationship between climate change and migration is complex, multifaceted, and deeply interconnected with a range of socio-political and economic factors. Moving away from a simplistic, linear cause-and-effect narrative is essential for de-securitizing the discourse around climate migration. By shifting the focus from fear and sensationalism to a more nuanced understanding of the issue, we can better address the real challenges faced by migrants. The increasing scale of climate migration demands a comprehensive approach that recognizes the intricate drivers behind migration and evolving mobility patterns. This includes not only environmental stressors such as droughts, heatwaves, and water scarcity but also the impact of political violence, conflict, and economic inequality.
As climate change continues to intensify, it is critical to develop policies and interventions that prioritize migrant safety and human rights. This requires an evidence-based approach that takes into account the specific needs of displaced populations, particularly vulnerable groups such as women, children, and marginalized communities. Understanding the intersectionality of climate change, migration, and socio-political dynamics is essential to creating effective and equitable solutions.
A gender-sensitive approach is particularly vital, as women and other marginalized groups often face compounded vulnerabilities during both climate shocks and migration. Addressing these issues requires thoughtful, context-specific strategies that go beyond immediate humanitarian aid to include long-term solutions for resilience building, community empowerment , and sustainable development. The future of climate migration in regions like MENA depends on collective efforts to navigate these complexities with compassion and foresight.