Turkey’s position within NATO after Finland and Sweden’s accession

Associate Professor Murat Yeşiltaş, a director at the SETA Foundation, highlights that “the Nordic region will become NATO territory,” and the accession of Finland and Sweden will be the most significant outcome of the paradigm shift regarding Russia within NATO, signifying the end of the post-Cold War period.[iii] According to Yeşiltaş, the post-Cold War era saw NATO adopt two approaches towards Russia: deterrence and engagement. However, as of 2020, especially with the invasion of Ukraine, this approach is no longer sustainable, necessitating a new security architecture.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin made it clear that the Russian government will not hesitate to escalate its aggressive and bellicose attacks in Eastern Europe[iv], Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow with the Brookings Institution, highlights another paradigm shift among Sweden and Finland’s political elites and public opinions: “As all bets are off after the invasion of Ukraine, the policy of neutrality no longer offers security and assurance for these countries, and the need for the NATO umbrella has become evident.” The enlargement of NATO into the Nordic region plays a crucial role in shaping NATO’s deterrence and collective security approach. Finland and Sweden, with their geostrategic location and military capacity, will strengthen the transatlantic alliance against an increasingly aggressive Russian threat.

Turkish officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity asserted that Turkey has always been a strong advocate of the expansion of NATO. “Turkey welcomed the accession of Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia to NATO in 2004, which constituted the largest-ever enlargement of the Alliance.” In 2020, then Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu declared Turkey’s support for the addition of Georgia to the organization.[v] He said, “We are criticized for having relatively better relations with Russia as a neighbor, but our western friends are not agreeing to invite Georgia because they don’t want to provoke Russia. But Georgia needs us and we need an ally like Georgia. So we need enlargement and Georgia should be made a member.” In 2023, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that “there is no doubt that Ukraine deserves membership of NATO.”[vi]

Ragıp Soylu, the bureau chief of Middle East Eye, stresses that Turkey’s move to block Sweden’s NATO membership wasn’t about appeasing Russia: “While Turkey may collaborate with Moscow on specific matters, it remains staunchly opposed to any expansion of Russian influence in its immediate vicinity and across Europe.”

According to Turkish officials, Turkey’s initial objection to Sweden’s NATO membership stemmed from bilateral issues, namely Sweden’s accommodation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD).[vii] “Turkey’s preconditions for Sweden’s membership were in accordance with the principles of Nato” said Prof. Fahrettin Altun, the Turkish Presidency’s director of communication.[viii] The PKK is considered to be a terrorist organization by the US, UK and EU, and several other countries. While Turkey perceives the PYD as the Syrian branch of the PKK, the Obama administration started to support PYD forces in autumn 2014 with the pretext that the armed group was aiding the combat against ISIS in North Syria.[ix] Altun noted that PKK’s violent activities, “along with their ethno-nationalist, separatist ideology, is antithetical to Nato’s values and destabilizing for the region.”[x]

In 2023, Tobias Billstrom, the Swedish foreign minister, admitted that the PKK has “extensive work in Sweden to raise money and finance terrorist activities aimed at Turkey” and added that the organization also uses Sweden as a base for drug sales and other activities that also harm Swedish society.[xi]

According to Soylu, Turkey has achieved three tangible results through the negotiations for Sweden’s NATO membership: “First, Turkey successfully persuaded Sweden to take decisive action against PKK financing and recruitment activities, resulting in concrete legal reforms to criminalize support for terrorist organizations.” Turkey and Sweden have established robust security and judicial cooperation mechanisms to closely monitor PKK activities, including the deployment of a permanent Turkish police presence at the Swedish government to consult on counterterrorism efforts.

Secondly, since the May 2023 presidential elections, Erdogan has aimed to recalibrate Turkey’s relationship with the West, revitalizing its aspirations for EU accession and initiating a new dialogue with Europe. “Erdogan is primarily driven by the potential for EU investment in Turkey, particularly as Ankara grapples with a severe economic crisis marked by high inflation. His endorsement of Sweden’s bid is another indication of his efforts to mend ties with Europe.”

Lastly, Turkey’s support for NATO’s Nordic expansion will carry significant implications for its relationship with the US. According to Soner Cağaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Sweden’s NATO membership has become a symbol of the deadlock in Turkey-US relations.” US Congressional leaders have already announced that they would not block the $23 billion F-16 sale to Turkey[xii] while Canada also lifted an armed embargo against Ankara. Sweden last year already lifted its own embargo as well.[xiii] Recently, the US Ambassador to Turkey authored an opinion piece titled “A Strong Relationship with Turkey is in America’s Best Interest.”[xiv] Additionally, President Erdoğan hosted a bipartisan US congressional committee led by senior Senator Jeanne Shaheen in Ankara.[xv]