Almost a year after the beginning of cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in October 2023 and in parallel with the Hamas-Israel war in the Gaza Strip, a major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah took place in September 2024. At that time, the US, France and some of their allies called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire[i] between Hezbollah and Israel, which was ultimately rejected by Israel.[ii] More than two months later, the US and France reached an ongoing ceasefire between both sides.[iii]
Timeline of events since 17th September
On 17th and 18th September, pager[iv] and radio devices[v] belonging to Hezbollah members exploded simultaneously, killing dozens and wounding thousands in different areas in Lebanon; mainly in the southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahyeh), Bekaa and southern Lebanon. Two months later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel was behind these attacks.[vi]
On 23rd September, Israel launched operation “Northern Arrows”[vii] consisting of a wide and intensive air campaign against Hezbollah. On the first day of the operation, the operation killed more than 500 people[viii], including civilians and combatants, in South Lebanon and the Bekaa while the fighting displaced hundreds of thousands across Lebanon.
On 27th September, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah[ix]—the group’s leader since 1992—in a powerful airstrike that targeted the group’s underground headquarters in Dahyeh.
After limiting its strikes in Dahyeh to assassinations only, Israel began striking the suburbs regularly[x], targeting Hezbollah positions in the area following Nasrallah’s death.
On 1st October, Israel launched a ground operation in South Lebanon[xi] that initially focused on the first line of villages near the border. On the same day, Israel carried out an airstrike within Beirut’s administrative border for the first time, targeting an apartment in Cola.[xii]
On the night of 4th October, an Israeli airstrike targeted Nasrallah’s likely successor, Hachem Safieddine[xiii], in Dahyeh. Hezbollah confirmed Safieddine’s death some twenty days later.[xiv]
In mid-November, the Israeli army initiated the second phase of their ground operation[xv], which involved the advancement of their troops towards Hezbollah’s second line of defence. Simultaneously, Israel increased its strikes on Beirut and its suburbs.[xvi] In parallel, the US proposed[xvii] a new ceasefire deal for the first time since September.
Between September and November, Hezbollah gradually expanded the scope of its attacks, launching rockets and precision missiles at Tel Aviv[xviii] on several occasions and claiming to have targeted major Israeli military bases in various cities.[xix] Moreover, Hezbollah’s armed combatants were engaged in heavy clashes against Israeli forces in South Lebanon.[xx]
The number of Hezbollah members who died in Lebanon since September’s escalation remains unclear, as the group halted the announcement of their deaths around that time.[xxi] The Israeli army claims that it has killed around 3,500 Hezbollah members since October 2023.[xxii] Between October 2023 and September 2024, the group announced that more than 500 of its members were killed in Lebanon.
According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, Israel’s military operation killed more than 4,000 people since October 2023[xxiii] with at least 16,593 injured. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s attacks killed over 100 people in total[xxiv], including Israeli soldiers in South Lebanon and both soldiers and civilians in northern Israel and the Golan Heights.
Israel’s leveraging of Hezbollah’s losses
The deterrence that Hezbollah succeeded in achieving for many years was completely lost.
After suffering consecutive blows since 17th September, Hezbollah appeared increasingly vulnerable to Israel. For that reason, Netanyahu’s government chose to seize the opportunity to weaken the group as much as possible, which explains Israel’s rejection of the 21-day ceasefire proposal back in September.
Moreover, even though Hezbollah ramped up its attacks since September, the group’s retaliation for Israeli attacks were weaker than expected. Experts have previously assessed that in the case that Israel launches a war against Lebanon, Hezbollah would fire a large number of missiles at central Israel on a daily basis. However, despite Hezbollah’s bombardment of Tel Aviv several times, the group utilised a limited number of missiles in these attacks explaining the low casualty rate.
As a result, the deterrence that Hezbollah succeeded in achieving for many years was completely lost, granting Israel the freedom to escalate with less fear of repercussions.
Ceasefire agreement
On 26th November, Israel and Hezbollah finally reached a ceasefire which took effect the next day.
The agreement outlines several key provisions, including a withdrawal of the Israeli army from southern Lebanon within 60 days, Hezbollah’s full withdrawal from south of the Litani River (located 30 km from the Lebanese-Israeli border) and a deployment of the Lebanese army in Southern Lebanon. In addition, a committee involving the US, France, UNIFIL, Lebanon and Israel will be established to supervise the ceasefire.
US President-elect Donald Trump’s green light[xxv] to solve the conflict in Lebanon before his inauguration gave an important push in favour of the ceasefire negotiations led by US envoy to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein.
Israel accepted the ceasefire for several reasons. First, it has dealt significant blows to Hezbollah’s capabilities, destroying key assets of the militia between September and November. Second, more than 50 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the clashes in South Lebanon[xxvi], meaning that nearly half of the Israelis killed in Hezbollah’s attacks since October 2023 lost their lives in less than two months. Israel is eager to achieve its goal of returning its residents displaced from northern Israel for over a year due to Hezbollah’s attacks, providing a further incentive.
As the Israeli government is facing strengthening internal pressure, it needs to redirect its attention to Gaza and the hostages still held by Hamas. The ceasefire in Lebanon will give the Israeli army an opportunity to increase the pressure on Hamas as the group is now left alone following Hezbollah’s halting of its operations.
Nevertheless, the Israeli army is exhausted from thirteen consecutive months of war in Gaza and more recently in Lebanon. Thousands of Israeli soldiers are suffering from PTSD or mental illnesses caused by trauma during the war.[xxvii]
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has been even more eager than Israel to achieve a ceasefire. Following the successive blows suffered by Hezbollah, the group’s primary goal shifted to ending the conflict, despite having previously insisted that it would not put a stop to its operations unless Israel stopped its war in Gaza. As a result, Israel succeeded in separating the Gaza front from the Lebanese front, with Hezbollah negotiating a ceasefire with Israel independently of the situation in Gaza, despite the ongoing war there.
Hezbollah in a delicate position
At this stage of the conflict, it is unlikely that Hezbollah would accept to let go of its arsenal completely.
Following the ceasefire, Israel has carried out airstrikes deep in South Lebanon[xxviii] (north of the Litani River) and its bulldozers advanced to new areas in villages close to the border.[xxix] Moreover, Israeli artillery shelling has been targeting southern Lebanese border villages. Israel said that Hezbollah broke the truce several times, claiming that it detected “suspicious operations” carried out by the group[xxx], with Netanyahu adding that Israel would wage an intensive war against Hezbollah if the latter breached the truce.[xxxi]
So far, Hezbollah carried out only one operation against Israel since the ceasefire, firing two mortars at an Israeli site in the Kfarshouba hills on 4th December.[xxxii] Israel retaliated by carrying out a large wave of airstrikes, killing at least nine people.[xxxiii]
The Israeli army will likely continue striking any suspicious movement it detects under the pretext of responding to breaches of the ceasefire. While the ceasefire agreement allows the Israeli army to defend itself, it grants the right to respond exclusively to the Lebanese army, not Hezbollah. That being said, it is unlikely that the Lebanese army would respond to Israeli attacks at this stage as it still lacks the necessary equipment and personnel to effectively confront Israel. Meanwhile, any attack carried out by Hezbollah would be considered a breach of the ceasefire even if they come in response to Israeli strikes. Thus, Israel may exploit this situation to target Hezbollah targets even far from the border.
Given these circumstances, Hezbollah finds itself in a delicate position. Resuming its operations risks a war that can be even more intense than the fighting over the past few months, potentially weakening the group beyond repair. The fall of the Syrian regime just adds to these insecurities, as this will hinder Iran’s ability to supply the group with weapons through Syria.
Hezbollah’s perceived inactivity in response to Israeli strikes could lead to the group’s loss of legitimacy among the Lebanese people. For a long time, Hezbollah has justified its arsenal as necessary for defending Lebanon from potential Israeli attacks. However, continued inaction in the face of persistent attacks would undermine this rationale, potentially reducing Hezbollah to a political party without military power. At this stage of the conflict, it is unlikely that Hezbollah would accept to let go of its arsenal completely. Despite both sides’ willingness to avoid the resumption of the war, such a scenario remains possible, particularly due to different interpretations of the ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah believes the agreement applies only to areas south of the Litani River while Israel considers it to cover all Lebanese territories. Additionally, Israel asserts its right to act against any suspicious movement, while Hezbollah views such actions as violations of the ceasefire.
[i] AlJazeera (2024). “Details of the international initiative to negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah”, 26 September, retrieved from: https://www.aljazeera.net/politics/2024/9/26/%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D8%A5%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82.
[ii] DW (2024). “Israel rejects international call for ceasefire before Hezbollah is ‘crushed’”, 26 September, retrieved from: https://www.dw.com/ar/%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%B6-%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%A1%D9%8B-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%84%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D9%85%D8%A4%D9%82%D8%AA-%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87/a-70332501/.
[iii] AlJazeera (2024). “Ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel comes into effect”, 27 November, retrieved from: https://www.aljazeera.net/news/2024/11/27/%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%84-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A1-%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D8%A5%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1.
[iv] AlSharq AlAwsat (2024). “The moment a pager exploded among Hezbollah members”, 17 September, retrieved from: https://aawsat.com/video/5061924-%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B8%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%AC%D8%B1-%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%89-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87.?
[v] AlHurra (2024). “Wireless and pager explosions – How did they happen?”, 19 September, retrieved from: https://www.alhurra.com/lebanon/2024/09/19/%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%B2%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%84%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AC%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D8%AF%D8%AB%D8%AA%D8%9F.
[vi] BBC News Arabic (2024). “Netanyahu acknowledges ‘Pager’ operation in Lebanon”, 10 November, retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/arabic/articles/c62lnr24lk3o.
[vii] ElNashra (2024). “Israeli army names military operation in Lebanon ‘Northern Arrows’”, 23 September, retrieved from: https://www.elnashra.com/news/show/1686357/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B7%D9%84%D9%82-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D9%85-%D8%B3%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-\.
[viii] AlNahar (2024). “The displacement of hundreds of thousands paralyzed Sidon and closed its gates”, 24 September, retrieved from: https://www.annahar.com/arabic/section/77-%D9%85%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B9/340291/%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%88—%D9%86%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%AD-%D9%85%D8%A6%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%B4%D9%84-%D8%B5%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A3%D9%82%D9%81%D9%84-%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%87%D8%A7.
[ix] AlHurra (2024). “Where Nasrallah was killed”, 29 September, retrieved from: https://www.alhurra.com/lebanon/2024/09/29/%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%88%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%88-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%B5%D8%AF-%D8%AD%D8%AC%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B1.
[x] AlArabiya (2024). “The largest Israeli attack on the suburbs…”, 27 September, retrieved from: https://www.alarabiya.net/arab-and-world/2024/09/27/%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%AA%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%82.
[xi] AlModon (2024). “Israel launches ground operation ‘Northern Arrows’ with American support”, 1 October, retrieved from: https://www.almodon.com/politics/2024/10/1/%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%84%D9%82-%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B3%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A.
[xii] AlJazeera (2024). “Large death toll and the first Israeli targets in the heart of Beirut”, 30 September, retrieved from: https://www.aljazeera.net/news/2024/9/30/%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%84-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-2.
[xiii] BBC News (2024). “Hashem Safieddine – News about Israel targeting Nasrallah’s potential successor in the most violent raid on Lebanon”, 4 October, retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/arabic/articles/c5y926eq3e0o.
[xiv] AlJazeera (2024). “Hezbollah mourns death of Executive Council Chairman Hashem Safieddine”, 23 October, retrieved from: https://www.aljazeera.net/news/2024/10/23/%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%84-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%B9%D9%89-%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3.
[xv] AlJazeera (2024). “Israeli army begins second phase of ground operation in Lebanon”, 12 November, retrieved from: https://www.aljazeera.net/news/2024/11/12/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%84%D8%A9.
[xvi] Lebanon24 (2024). “How many raids were there in the suburbs today?”, 16 November, retrieved from: https://www.lebanon24.com/news/lebanon/1279305/%D8%A2%D8%AE%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%A1%D9%8B-%D9%83%D9%85-%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%BA-%D8%B9%D8%AF%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%85%D8%9F.
[xvii] Arabi21 (2024). “Details of the US proposal for a ceasefire in Lebanon…”, 17 November, retrieved from: https://arabi21.com/story/1641082/%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%AD-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%84%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D8%A5%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%AA%D9%87-60-%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A7.
[xviii] Sky News Arabia (2024). “Hezbollah targets Israeli soldiers and sites with missiles and drones”, 19 October, retrieved from: https://www.skynewsarabia.com/middle-east/1748927-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%88%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%95%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%8A%D9%94%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AE-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA.
[xix] BBC News Arabic (2024). “Hezbollah announces bombing of Israeli naval base and military airport…”, 7 November, retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/arabic/articles/cpwry8j1g88o.
[xx] AlHurra (2024). “Violent clashes in southern Lebanon…”, 13 October, retrieved from: https://www.alhurra.com/lebanon/2024/10/13/%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A9-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%B1.
[xxi] AlSharq AlAwsat (2024). “Hezbollah stops burying its dead for security reasons”, 4 October, retrieved from: https://aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A/5067774-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%8A%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D9%86%D8%B9%D9%8A-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%88%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%87%D9%85-%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%86%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A9.
[xxii] AlSharq AlAwsat – Facebook (2024). “Israeli army estimates it has killed 3,500 Hezbollah members over the past 14 months”, 28 November, retrieved from: https://www.facebook.com/story.php/?story_fbid=978012694368092&id=100064781104029&_rdr.
[xxiii] ElNashra (2024). “Numbers of killed and wounded as a result of Israeli strikes”, 4 December, retrieved from: https://www.elnashra.com/news/show/1700195/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%B6-4047-%D8%B4%D9%87%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%8816593-%D8%AC%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AD%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%A1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5.
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