The ‘Swords of Iron’ war between Israel and Hamas has initiated profound geopolitical transformations in the Middle East. Israel has consolidated its strategic position during the conflict, but the region’s complexities have only deepened. Among these shifts is the potential transition from the dominance of the ‘Shiite Crescent’ to the emergence of a ‘Sunni Revival’, driven by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottoman aspirations.
Israel’s military actions against Hamas in Gaza as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, have considerably weakened Iran’s regional influence. This diminishing of Iranian power opens the door for Turkey, a predominantly Sunni nation, to assume a leadership role in the region. Turkey’s strategic geographic location and robust military capabilities position Ankara as a natural successor to fill the vacuum left by Tehran.
The emergence of a Sunni Revival, led by Turkey and potentially uniting parts of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and some Gulf states such as Qatar, would represent a dramatic realignment of power. While Iran’s grip loosens on the region, Turkey’s ambitions intensify, creating new complexities for Israel and the broader region.
The rise and demise of the ‘Shiite Crescent’: Sectarian and geopolitical implications
The concept of the ‘Shiite Crescent’ gained prominence in 2004 when King Abdullah of Jordan described a growing network of Shiite alliances stretching from Mashhad in Iran to Beirut in Lebanon. This ‘crescent’ symbolized Iran’s strategy to expand its influence through partnerships with Shiite-led or Shiite-influenced governments and militias across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. Collectively referred to as the ‘Axis of Resistance’, these alliances aimed to counterbalance Sunni powers and challenge Jerusalem.
At its height, the Shiite Crescent included Iran’s backing of the Alawite-led Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq. However, this network has faced mounting challenges recently. The collapse of Assad’s regime in late 2024 marked a critical blow, disrupting Iran’s strategic link to Hezbollah and exposing vulnerabilities in its regional strategy.
Iran’s support for Assad’s regime—including deploying Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fighters and providing substantial financial aid—proved economically and militarily unsustainable. Sanctions, domestic dissent, and military setbacks further strained Iran’s capacity to maintain its alliances. Additionally, Israel’s intensified airstrikes in Syria and Lebanon disrupted Iranian supply lines, further weakening its regional foothold. Israel has also periodically launched military operations from the Golan Heights into southern Syria to deter Iranian entrenchment and Hezbollah activity near its borders. The October 2023 Hamas attack on Southern Israel—met with overwhelming Israeli retaliation—imposed significant damage on Iran’s proxies that accelerated the decline of the ‘Shiite Crescent’.
Simultaneously, a ‘Sunni Revival’ is emerging under Turkish leadership. Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottoman ambitions aim to revive Turkey’s influence in territories historically under Ottoman rule and beyond, positioning Turkey as the primary Sunni power in the region. This shift underscores the fluidity of Middle Eastern alliances and the dynamic nature of its power struggles.
Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottomanism and the Sunni revival: Turkey’s expanding influence
Neo-Ottomanism, a political ideology centered on reviving the Ottoman Empire’s legacy, has become the cornerstone of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s vision. Emerging in the 1990s and gaining momentum under the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Neo-Ottomanism seeks to restore Turkey’s cultural, political, and economic dominance across former Ottoman territories and the broaden Middle East.
Domestically, this vision has spurred a cultural renaissance emphasizing Ottoman traditions, from architecture to urban planning. Internationally, Neo-Ottomanism has driven Turkey’s assertive foreign policy, marked by military interventions in Syria and Libya, engagement in the Eastern Mediterranean, and diplomatic outreach in Africa and the Gulf. By positioning Turkey as a leading Sunni power, Erdoğan aims to counterbalance both Iran and traditional Sunni leaders like Saudi Arabia, but also project power toward Jerusalem and position Turkey as the protector of Palestinians and the spearhead of the Muslim world against Israel. Saudi Arabia, wary of Turkey’s growing influence, views Ankara’s ambitions with suspicion, as they challenge Riyadh’s own claim to Sunni leadership and its role as the guardian of conservative Islam.
The ‘Swords of Iron’ war’s aftermath has bolstered Turkey’s aspirations. The decline of Iranian influence and the collapse of Assad’s regime have created opportunities for Ankara to lead a potential Sunni Revival. Leveraging its military strength, strategic location, and economic resilience, Turkey is willing to expand its influence in Syria, Iraq, and beyond.
Turkey’s Involvement in Syria after the fall of the Assad Regime
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024 marked a pivotal moment in the Syrian civil war. Throughout this conflict, Russia has played a pivotal role as Assad’s primary military backer, providing air power, political cover, and diplomatic leverage to preserve the regime.
Turkey, a long-standing player in Syria’s civil war, moved swiftly to establish its influence. Turkish-backed opposition forces, mainly the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured key cities, ending in the fall of Damascus. Turkey’s objectives in Syria include preventing the establishment of a Kurdish autonomous region, countering Iranian influence, and managing refugee flows through the establishment of buffer zones.
Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottomanism has shaped Turkey’s actions in Syria. By promoting Turkish culture and governance in ‘liberated’ areas, Ankara aims to create a sphere of influence reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire. The ‘Swords of Iron’ war, which weakened Iran’s proxies and alliances, provided Turkey with a strategic opening to advance its regional ambitions. However, these moves have raised concerns about Ankara’s long-term intentions and the potential for increased regional instability.
Turkey’s ambitions, however, are constrained by its deepening economic and fiscal crisis, as well as by its complex relationships with both the U.S. and NATO—which remain cautions of Ankara’s assertive moves—as well as Russia, which has its own stakes in Syria and the broader Middle East.
Regional impacts of a Sunni Revival—Implications for Israel and beyond
The shift from a ‘Shiite Crescent’ to a ‘Sunni Revival’ led by Turkey would mark a profound realignment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, carrying both challenges and opportunities for Israel. Sunni-majority nations could align more closely with Turkey, reshaping the region’s power dynamics. However, this realignment may intensify competition between Turkey and Iran, particularly in conflict-prone areas like Syria and Iraq.
For Israel, the decline of the ‘Shiite Crescent’ eases some direct threats from Iran but simultaneously introduces new security complexities as Turkey asserts its regional influence. To navigate these challenges, Jerusalem will likely look towards strengthening alliances with its existing Arab partner states to counterbalance Turkey’s growing role, deepen military preparedness to address potential threats, and leverage its economic and technological advantages to bolster ties with regional partners. Close monitoring of Turkey’s actions in Syria and beyond is crucial for anticipating and mitigating emerging risks.
In conclusion, the ‘Swords of Iron’ war has significantly altered the region’s balance of power, weakening Iran and empowering Turkey. While Turkey’s leadership in a ‘Sunni Revival’ offers opportunities, it also poses challenges to regional stability. Israel and other regional actors must effectively adapt their strategies to manage this evolving geopolitical landscape.
