Great Powers in Alaska and the “Middlegame” of GCC States in the Ukraine war

Great powers have conducted their approach towards Ukraine akin to a chess game since 2014. The Alaska Summit, held between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 15 August, will be remembered either as the moment of “check” or even “checkmate” for Ukraine and its Western supporters (including NATO, the UK and EU leaders). It is clear that over the last three years of the war, old-fashioned Realist ways of thinking influenced geopolitics the most, albeit combined with a new, special place for the GCC states.

Key strategic moves have been driven by concerns over territories, security guarantees, and economic and military considerations, that is, classic measurements of power from the Realist point of view.

Historical narratives pertaining to territories are especially characteristic of one of the founders of IR Realist theory, Hans Morgenthau’s writings, which measured power through “elements of national power”, termed “power resources” or “capabilities”, such as geography, natural resources, industrial capacity, military preparedness, population, and national character.[i] Through this lens, power is viewed through the tangible resources behind it, with military power, the size of territories and population, resource endowment, and economic capabilities at the forefront.

The outbreak of the Ukraine war confirms this logic. The first stage of the conflict started on the issue of the Crimean Peninsula, when the territory was annexed by Russia in 2014, and itself has Realist thinking and historical narratives behind it. Crimea’s historical connections to Russia go back to the 18^th century, as the result of Catherine the Great’s move to integrate it into the Russian Empire. The importance of the land was highlighted in the Crimean War of 1853-56 too, as Russia fought with the ailing Ottoman Empire, which was in turn supported by France and Britain. A large proportion of ethnic Russians continued to live within this Ukrainian territory.[ii] Following the annexation of the peninsula, Russia built its Black Sea naval base in Sevastopol, strengthening its strategic reach in the region and further demonstrating how Realist principles defined its move.

Translating the language of chess into that of realpolitik, the Alaska Summit—which took place on 16^th August—has not resulted in a ceasefire deal, but both President Putin and President Trump have cited progress.[iii] In the immediate aftermath of the summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and seven leaders of Europe met with Trump in Washington[iv]. A week later, Zelenskyy vowed to “push Russia to peace”.[v]

It was a symbolic gesture to host the Summit in Alaska. The territory was under the control of Russia after Czar Peter the Great sent explorer Vitus Bering to the coast in 1725. The U.S. purchased the land from Russia in 1867 under Czar Alexander the Second.[vi] Prior to the meeting, President Trump suggested that the summit would discuss a “swapping of territories” between Ukraine and Russia as the part of the deal to end the conflict.[vii] In the following weeks, President Putin made clear his demands to end the war with two “Nos” and one “Yes”: No to NATO admittance and Western troops stationed in Ukraine, and the handover of Ukraine’s Donbas region to Russia.[viii]

The Summit also involved discussing the economic dynamics of war, as Russia would like to end the current sanctions regime against it. Russia aims to dominate the Arctic as it would assist it to open shipping routes as the Arctic ice cap shrinks. President Putin ordered the government to present guidelines for well-recognized companies to return to the Russian market.[ix] He also suggested to President Trump to launch joint ventures with the U.S. in the critical minerals and rare earth metals (REMs) fields. President Trump was also open to working together with Russia on mineral deposits in Alaska. President Putin also proposed joint investments in the development of oil and gas fields in the Arctic. As clear results of the Alaska Summit, Putin has signed a decree permitting ExxonMobil to return to the Sakhalin-1 oil project. This would allow the largest U.S. oil company, to re-enter the venture with a 30% stake. According to the latest reports, Russia and the U.S. are now in discussion about potential collaboration on natural gas projects in both the Arctic zone and Alaska (US). Moreover, restarting collaboration with the U.S. is also key for Russia’s LNG diversification strategy in the Arctic (e.g. through Novatek, which has built a liquification plant and exported LNG, but its Arctic LNG-2 enlargement has been stymied by sanctions because of the Ukraine war).