How a Biden Administration Could Re-Shape U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East

In this case, one route may be through strengthening and promoting the recent emergence of Israeli-Arab partnerships with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The Abraham Accords up to the current point has been seen by some as largely symbolic; however, even so, it could be the foundation for a strong group of nations encouraged by the idea of limiting Iranian influence. Chiefly, the most prominent potential partner in this case would be Saudi Arabia, who has increasingly become a proponent against Iranian aggression.[4] Further, a warming of the Israeli-Saudi relationship in recent years, point to a potential growing sentiment within the Saudi government that a partnership with Israel could help assess and strengthen many of its regional goals.[5]

However, with Israel and Saudi Arabia, Biden has expressed intentions to take a cautious approach to both relationships. A primary example of this is highlighted by indications that he would seek a more balanced solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.[5] This new Biden policy could be shaped by expanded diplomatic relationships with the Palestinians, in efforts to rejuvenate Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.[6] Though, despite this potential shift towards a more balanced policy, Aaron Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former State Department official who worked on Arab-Israeli negotiations, argues in a piece for the Washington Post that Biden’s presence as a Democratic president could help return bipartisan support for Israel that he says has become increasingly polarized in recent years.[7] However, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s relationship with the Obama Administration hardly ended warmly, with the Prime Minister publicly lashing out in statements at the U.S. for its role in the JCPOA, including when he spoke to a full session of Congress in 2015 — a speech that then Vice-President Biden did not attend.[8] Yet, Miller points out that, “working with Israel has been part of Biden’s political life for decades” and that, “[Biden’s] penchant for bipartisanship, in general, will likely return the U.S.-Israel relationship to the normal balance that has characterized it for decades.”[7]

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, could likely see a more blatant cooling of relations under a Biden Administration. Biden has previously expressed deep concern over the ties linking high-ranking Saudi Arabian officials to the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, as well as the state’s role in the ongoing war in Yemen, alluding during a Democratic Party Primary Debate in 2019 that U.S. support for the Kingdom would be significantly reduced under his presidency.[9] Yet, there is a distinctive opportunity for both parties to benefit from a re-defined U.S.-Saudi relationship. While Biden is ready to push for several Saudi concessions — most notably a drawdown or withdrawal from the war in Yemen and scrutiny on human rights matters, the Saudi government is slowly beginning efforts of economic development and moving away from oil dependence — a trend highlighted by falling oil prices and global climate change agreements, such as the 2016 Paris Climate Accords, that have painted a dire long term picture for oil and gas exporters. In relation to the U.S.-Saudi relationship, the Saudis recognize that a shift towards a new economic base will be largely assisted by continued U.S./European economic partnerships and U.S. regional security guarantees against Iran.[10] Further, knowing that they have deeply scarred their global reputation through the 2018 killing of Khashoggi, the Saudis and namely Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman could be willing to make certain concessions in order to sustain the relationship.[11] One avenue, as mentioned earlier, the Saudis’ growing wariness of Iran may lead to a decision of normalizing relations with Israel that could possibly give the U.S. administration a strong reason to maintain the Saudis as a partner. However, the Crown Prince’s close and often informal style of diplomacy under the Trump Administration — particularly with President Trump’s advisor Jared Kushner — may not be sustainable under a President Biden who is considered to be a strong “institutionalist” likely to steer towards a more traditional, formal approach to diplomatic relations.[12] Yet, all in all, the outlying strategic and diplomatic opportunities mentioned for both the Saudi Kingdom and incoming American administration in a stable partnership put the future Biden Administration in an excellent position to meaningfully address many of its initiatives in the Middle East through a re-imagining of the Saudi relationship.