Russia and the Arab Spring: from Understanding to Condemnation

The Arab revolutions of 2011 certainly raised Russia’s interest in the region. However, during the first months of the protests Moscow had no intention of “returning” to the Middle East. Russia was neutrally friendly to the Arab Spring, leaving the countries of the region the right to choose their paths of development. Moscow was only interested in the continuity of realisation of the previous agreements between Russia and the countries of the region, as well as the protests’ radicalization which could become the reason for civil wars and encourage terrorist activities[iii]. The Kremlin’s largest concern was the potential activation of Islamist groups in the North Caucasus and Central Asia.

Nevertheless, during the first months of the Arab Spring, Moscow tended to demonstrate an understanding of the Arab revolutions and the inner core of social unrest. In particular, Russian officials noted the dissatisfaction of educated young people with their social status and their lack of prospects for the future. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described the reasons for the demonstrations several months after they began: “The driving force behind the events that were taking place in Libya, which we observed in Egypt and other countries, was mostly the educated youth”[iv].

Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov assessed the causes of the Arab revolutions as follows:

“As for the root causes of the current turmoil in the Arab countries, in my opinion they lie both in the socioeconomic and political spheres. Of course, with all the specifics of the development of events in different countries, there is much in common – in many of them the crisis of the authoritarian political system was long overdue. The irremovability of leaders and political elites in general, the low degree of social mobility, the late nature or even absence of urgent reforms, high unemployment, corruption, and other social diseases – all these internal conflict factors accumulated for many years and detonated at the beginning of this year. In addition, we must not forget that in the Arab countries, the young population predominates. They are modern, educated people who have mastered the Internet, blogs, social networks, who did not see the future in the existing coordinate system. It is not by chance that they became an important mobilising element of the Arab revolutions”[v].

The reference messages were broadcast both in the media and in expert comments. Thus, the TASS news agency, referring to then-Russian President Dmitri Medvedev’s special envoy for Africa, Mikhail Margelov, called the Arab Spring a consequence of the predisposition of the masses, not of the intervention of the West[vi]. Experts referred to internal, domestic causes, discussing the riots in other countries and comparing the situation in them with what was happening in the Arab world[vii]. Thus, the main cause of the Arab Spring was popular anger[viii].

Meanwhile, it is important to point out that, during the first years of the Arab Spring Russia still proceeded from recognizing the right of the USA to act as the preeminent power in the region, and also tried not to interfere in the policies of Washington. In this connection, Bogdanov stated that “the development of the countries of the region along the democratic path can only be welcomed. However, do not forget the mistakes of the past. After all, attempts to ‘instill’ in the Arab countries a democracy of one or another sample from outside have already been made, but they have not led to anything good. The long overdue reforming of the Arab states must take place on the initiative of the peoples themselves”[ix]. Lavrov referred to the involvement of the United States in the political crisis in his interview in March 2011 and even pointed out some strangeness in the behaviour of the Americans, who did not immediately formulate their approach to the situation in Egypt as it developed rapidly and under the influence of internal processes[x].

The voting about Libya which took place in the UN Security Council in March 2011 became the clearest statement of the fact that Russia still saw the USA as the major guarantor of the regional order in the Middle East. The Russian delegation of the UN abstained in the voting about the 1973 resolution of implementing a no-fly zone above Libya. Many Russians (including Valeriy Chamov, the Russian ambassador to Tripoli) perceived that as “betrayal of the interests of the country” [xi]. However, at that moment it was a way to carry on with the policy of pragmatism which Moscow had been following since the USSR had collapsed. Also, it demonstrated the unwillingness of Moscow to risk the relationships with the West for the sake of protecting Col. Gaddafi’s government.

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