Reimagining the contours of Russia-Middle East relations

Primakov’s legacy is a testament to the impact of individual leadership. His numerous visits to the region to fortify bilateral ties and his efforts to elevate Russia’s involvement in the Middle East peace process were pivotal. Engaging in active diplomacy with Israeli and Palestinian leaders, he set a precedent for Russia’s role in the region. This outreach, now a distant memory in the current geopolitical landscape, underscores the profound influence of leadership on the evolving Russia-MENA dynamics.

In stark contrast, Vladimir Putin’s approach to the Middle East has been markedly different. Putin has adopted a more assertive, military-focused approach. Russia’s military intervention in Syria in 2015 was not just about supporting the Assad regime; it was a strategic move to secure Russian military bases and showcase military capabilities. This intervention highlights Putin’s strategy of using military power to achieve political objectives, positioning Russia as a major regional power. The evolution of Russia’s ambitions and strategic objectives in the Middle East mirrors the personalities at its helm.

Recent shifts in global geopolitics demand a re-examination of this relationship, which is becoming increasingly critical in shaping the region’s future. Russia, with its historical ties and emerging strategies, stands at a pivotal juncture in its dealings with the Middle East, and balancing relations with Middle Eastern countries requires it to juggle various levels of cooperation and competition.

While it collaborates with OPEC members in the Gulf to stabilize global oil markets, it is also involved in nuclear energy projects, such as constructing nuclear power plants in Egypt and Iran. However, Russia’s engagement in the Middle East has its challenges. The region’s instability, complex alliances, and competing interests create a volatile environment for Russian diplomacy. Moreover, Western sanctions on Russia continue to impact its economic dealings with Middle Eastern countries, further complicating its strategic calculus.

Several critical factors are likely to shape the contours of Russia-Middle East interactions moving forward. Russia is expected to maintain its military presence in Syria, reinforcing its bases and continuing support for the Assad regime. This presence secures Russia’s influence in the Eastern Mediterranean and its role in regional security matters. Additionally, the Kremlin might seek to expand its military cooperation with other Middle Eastern countries, offering defense equipment and training to enhance its strategic foothold.

On the economic and energy cooperation front, the OPEC+ framework will likely continue as a platform for Russia to coordinate with Middle Eastern oil producers. Beyond energy, Russia may pursue broader economic ties, including investments in infrastructure, agriculture, and technology sectors within the Middle East. This multifaceted approach is crucial for Russia to maintain its influence and avoid conflicts of interest.

Moreover, continued cooperation on counterterrorism initiatives will be pivotal. Russia may increase its intelligence sharing and joint operations with Middle Eastern countries to combat extremist threats. The Middle East will also remain a theatre for US-Russia competition, with Russia exploiting opportunities to challenge US influence by strengthening its alliances and offering alternatives to American policies.

However, an association of this scale comes with inherent risks. Ongoing conflicts in the region pose significant threats to Russia’s interests. Navigating these conflicts while maintaining alliances will be a complex challenge. Western sanctions could further impact Russia’s economic interactions with the Middle East, particularly in energy and defence. Additionally, Russia’s domestic economic situation and political dynamics could influence its foreign policy priorities, potentially constraining its ability to project power and invest in the Middle East.